2021 Upper Cook Inlet Sockeye Forecast

I’ve been patiently waiting for a press release from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game for the 2021 second run Kenai king forecast. It usually comes out in February, and needless to say, I’ve been curious why I haven’t seen anything. 

I decided to dig deep on the ADFG website to find the report, and to my surprise, I found the 2021 Upper Cook Inlet Sockeye forecast. It was released late January, and for reasons unknown, I missed it.  

For the people who are contemplating a fishing trip mid July to mid August, it’s not too late to look at the details. 

For 2021, ADFG is forecasting a total sockeye run in Upper Cook Inlet of 4.37 million fish. The escapement into the rivers is 2 million fish. The commercial harvest is 1.64 million fish, while the sportfish, subsistence, and personal use dipnet fishery harvest is .72 million fish.

Specifically, the Kenai River is expected to have a run of 2.33 million sockeye. This is a below average forecast.

Remember, these are paper fish, and a forecast is just that: a forecast. Some years the run is higher, some times lower. Let’s hope it’s like the 2020 forecast. ADFG predicted 4.27 million sockeye, and the actual run was 100,000 fish higher. I will save the discussion for a later date about the accuracy of ADFG’s numbers…

As soon as ADFG releases the 2021 forecast for the second run of Kenai kings, you know I’ll report about it here.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed for good news…