The Alaska Department of Fish and Game has released the forecast for both the early and late run Kenai River king salmon runs.
Neither are good.
The early run forecast is projected to be 1,531 fish. This number is 39% below the minimum escapement goal of 3,900 fish. If this is accurate, the 2025 early run will be the second lowest on record. The details of the forecast can be found here.
The late run forecast is 8,742 fish. This number is 58% below the minimum escapement goal of 15,000 fish. If this is accurate, the 2025 late run, like the early run, will be the second lowest on record. The details of the forecast can be found here.
An observation or two about the closure…
A season long king salmon closure is not new for the Kenai River. Even though this is not a “surprise” or “unprecedented” there is still a tremendous economic impact that affects our community. Some businesses have adapted, others have not. A quick Google search of lodges for sale on the Kenai River tells the tale of the impact of king salmon closures.
The ripple effect is real and profound.
I remember a conversation I had a couple of years ago with a local tackle shop owner. I told him I knew the impact a closure has on my business, but he must have a better feel for the community at large. Without hesitation he told me he was down $3 million dollars in tackle sales.
My jaw dropped.
Just so you know, Jane and I will continue to weather the closures until the king salmon fishery recovers. Until then our focus is on guided red salmon, silver salmon, pink salmon, trout fishing and the occasional wildlife viewing trip.
Thanks for reading and if you come back next week my blogpost topic will be about an advocacy group focusing on the recovery of king salmon stocks in Alaska.
See you then.
2025 Sockeye Salmon Forecast